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Alberta Seat Projections: UCP 61.8, NDP 23.7, AP 0.8, LIB 0.7 UCP Clear Favourite at Start of Race, NDP path to majority appears.

2019.03.21 18:03 gwaksl Alberta Seat Projections: UCP 61.8, NDP 23.7, AP 0.8, LIB 0.7 UCP Clear Favourite at Start of Race, NDP path to majority appears.

Alberta Seat Projections: UCP 61.8, NDP 23.7, AP 0.8, LIB 0.7 UCP Clear Favourite at Start of Race, NDP path to majority appears.

Methodological Note

I am very happy to announce the new Alberta Seat Projection Model. Since the last update, I have built in the demographic profiles of the new ridings post redistribution. I will be updating and posting regularly. Poll weights are based on proximity to current date, but as Mainstreet is rolling private polling, I will not disclose their weight publicly. I will respond to DM questions about weight for transparency, however.

Poll Averages

Province wide poll average
Calgary Metro — Includes all ridings containing \"Calgary\" and also includes Airdrie-Cochrane, Airdrie-East, Banff-Kananaskis, Chestermere-Strathmore, Highwood, and Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills
Edmonton Metro — Includes all ridings containing \"Edmonton\" and also includes Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville, Leduc-Beaumont, Morinville-St. Alberta, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove-Stony Plain, St. Albert, and Strathcona-Sherwood Park

All other ridings — Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock, Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St.Paul, Brooks-Medicine Hat, Camrose, Cardston-Siksika, Central Peace-Notley, Cypress-Medicine Hat, Drayton Valley-Devon, Drumheller, Stettler, Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche, Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo, Grande Prairie, Grande Prairie-Wapiti, Innifail-Sylvan Lake, Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland, Lacombe-Ponoka, Lesser Slave Lake, Lethbridge-East, Lethbridge-West, Livingstone-Macleod, Maskwacis-Wetaskawin, Peace River, Red Deer-North, Red Deer South, Rimby-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre, Taber-Warner, Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright, and West Yellowhead.

Seat Counts


Average number of seats won in 10 000 simulations. 87 Seats, 44 for a majority.

32 Seats Total

27 Seats Total

28 Seats Total

The opinion polls so far released are in broad agreement of a UCP lead over 10%. As a result the probability curves are very tight. Out of 10 000 simulated elections, the UCP wins a majority in all 10 000. X axis is average numbers of seats won, Y axis is number of times a result is achieved out of 10 000 simulations.
There are 48 seats considered \"safe UCP\". A safe seat indicates that the party has a > 95% chance of winning a given riding if an election was held today. (>75% for likely, >60% for lean).

Waterfall chart by region. Seats on Y axis. Orange bars show available seats, grey bars are seats where the NDP failed to capitalize on available seats. For example, the NDP is capitalizing very well in Edmonton Centre and Edmonton North, but failing in the Calgary suburbs.
The NDP path to a majority is through Central Calgary, and Calgary East. However, due to UCP strength in Calgary South, the NDP would also need to pick up 2-5 more ridings in the rest of Alberta.

Waterfall chart by region. Seats on Y axis. Blue bars show available seats, grey bars are seats where the UCP failed to capitalize on available seats. For example, the UCP is capitalizing very well in the Calgary Suburbs, but failing in the Central Edmonton.
The UCP need to hold their lead in Calgary to secure a majority.

Maps


Map of Alberta, no tossups. Unlike previous posts, the new maps are shaded based on likelihood of the leading party winning the riding.

Calgary. The Liberal riding is Calgary Mountain-View where UCP star candidate Ford recently resigned over racist remarks. David Khan the Liberal leader is expected to prevent a wipeout. The Alberta Party is currently expected to hold Elbow.

Edmonton. Stephen Mandel, the Alberta Party Leader is currently expected to lose narrowly to the UCP in Edmonton McClung.

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